What would your Tesla shares be worth if Tesla and SpaceX merge?
This models a merger that has not been announced. No deal exists, terms are unknown, and prediction
markets put the odds near a coin flip. Treat every output as a what-if, not a forecast.
Live Quotes
TSLA · Tesla
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SPCX · SpaceX
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Prices refresh every 60 seconds during market hours. Drag any slider to test your own scenario.
This is a scenario tool, not an arbitrage. Tesla owns essentially none of SpaceX today (about 19 million
shares, roughly 0.15%), so unlike a holding-company trade there is no built-in discount to capture right now.
The entire thesis depends on a merger that has not been announced.
The math: the combined company value is Tesla's market cap (price times about 3.755 billion shares) plus
SpaceX's market cap (price times about 13.1 billion shares). The merger-terms slider sets what fraction of
that combined value Tesla's existing holders end up owning, and the implied TSLA price is that fraction
spread across Tesla's share count. The Fair value anchor is the split that matches each side's current
market cap, so it lands near today's price; anything above it means Tesla holders extract a premium,
anything below means they get short-changed.
Key risks: Tesla shareholders do not control Tesla (Musk holds about 20% with no super-voting shares), so a
deal could be struck on terms that favor the SpaceX side, which Musk fully controls. Synergies are ignored
here. SpaceX is not yet profitable on a consolidated basis. And the deal may simply never happen.
Prediction-market odds, analyst views (Ives 80-90%, Morningstar 66% to Tesla, Gary Black bearish), and the
live quotes all move, so revisit the inputs.